If you’ve been glued to the Polymarket NBA Championship page lately, you’ve probably noticed a sea of blue and orange. The Oklahoma City Thunder are currently sitting pretty as the massive favorites, commanding a staggering 41% chance to win it all!!!
And look, we get it. They look unstoppable. Behind them, the Denver Nuggets are hovering around 11%, and the Houston Rockets—the season’s darlings—are sitting at 8%.
But if you look closely, you’ll notice a pattern: The top three teams on the board are all in the Western Conference.
While the public is piling money into the West, we think there is a massive market inefficiency forming in the Eastern Conference. Here is why the smartest play on the board right now might be ignoring the heavy hitters in the West entirely and buying into the chaos of the East.
The Western Conference Logjam
The narrative right now is simple: The West is a bloodbath. Between Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s Thunder, Jokić’s Nuggets, and the surging Rockets, whoever comes out of that conference will likely be the favorite to lift the Larry O’Brien trophy.
But that’s exactly the problem. To win a futures bet on the Thunder at 41% (roughly +145 odds), they have to survive a gauntlet of elite teams just to make the Finals. The path is brutal.
The “6% Solution”: Why the Cavs and Knicks Are Undervalued
Now, let’s look East.
Right now on Polymarket, the Cleveland Cavaliers and the New York Knicks are both trading at roughly 6% to win the title.
This number feels artificially low. The East is admittedly weaker this year, which means the path to the NBA Finals is significantly easier for a team like Cleveland or New York compared to their Western counterparts.
Here is the “Alpha”—and the mathematical argument for making this bet:
Fast forward to June.
Let’s say the Cavaliers or the Knicks manage to win the Eastern Conference. By virtue of simply punching their ticket to the NBA Finals, their win probability cannot statistically stay at 6%.
Even if they face a juggernaut Thunder team and are heavy underdogs in the Finals, the implied probability of any team in a two-team series is rarely lower than 30-35%.
-
Scenario A (Current): You buy the Knicks/Cavs at 6% (roughly +1550).
-
Scenario B (June): The Knicks/Cavs make the Finals. Even if the books favor OKC heavily, the market on the East winner will likely correct to at least 30% (roughly +230).
The Math Don’t Lie
This is a classic “buy low, sell high” setup unique to prediction markets like Polymarket.
If you buy a “Yes” share on the Cavaliers today at 6 cents, and they reach the Finals, that share price is virtually guaranteed to jump to 30 cents or higher. That is a 5x return on your investment before the Finals even tip-off.
At that point, you have options. You can ride it out for a massive payday, or you can hedge your position by betting on the Western Conference opponent to lock in a guaranteed profit.
The Verdict
While the NBA Power Rankings continue to obsess over the Thunder’s dominance, the value bettors are looking at the path of least resistance.
The Thunder might be the best team, but at 41%, the value is thin. The Cavs and Knicks at 6%? That’s a mispricing that ignores the mathematical certainty of a price hike for whichever team survives the East.
Check out the latest odds and make your play on Polymarket here.
Disclaimer: This is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and bet responsibly.